Service Plays Monday 12/15/08

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RX Junior

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: God's Country
Posts: 6


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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Asa 7* total of the year

under philly\cleveland
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Nelly's Greensheet

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2008
PHILADELPHIA (-14) Cleveland (37½) 7:35 PM

The recent distractions caught up to the Giants last week and
Philadelphia took advantage with a key win that keeps the Eagles in the
playoff chase. The Browns were worked last week but Cleveland has
been competitive in several games against quality teams. Cleveland
could be in better shape this week with more time for QB Dorsey and
two big wins from the Eagles should not mask a season or mediocrity
and mistakes from Philadelphia. EAGLES BY 7

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

KEY RELEASES
UNDER the total in the Cleveland-Philadelphia game

MONDAY, DECEMBER 15
UNDER THE TOTAL *PHILADELPHIA 24 - Cleveland 6—Doubledigit
favorites weren’t doing so well in the NFL TY until a good showing last
week. So, with Philly arguably playing some of its best ball of 2008 the last two weeks, and with Cleveland down to its third-team QB and producing 6, 6 & 9 points the last three games, prefer to lay the lumber. Eagles desperate for every win, and Ken Dorsey lacks mobility vs. Philly’s rotating DLmen. Philly has five DD wins TY, while the prognosis is not good for Romeo Crennel’s continuation as Browns’ HC. Cleveland 8-1 “under” away; Birds 6-2 “under” last 8 at Linc. CABLE TV—ESPN (04-Philadelphia -7 34-31 (OT)...SR: Cleveland 31-14-1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

NBA FORECAST
MONDAY, DECEMBER 15

New Jersey 103 - TORONTO 100—Toronto just 1-7 vs. line at Air Canada
Centre prior to yesterday, and Raptors have dropped last 7 vs. line overall
through Dec. 6. Teams also met Friday night at Meadowlands. 08-Nj +8' 129-
127 (OT-196), check 12/12 result; 07-Tor +3 106-69 (192), TOR -10 109-91
(191), NJ +5 99-90 (202), TOR -10' 113-85 (202) WASHINGTON 101 - Indiana 98—Home court meant something when these teams tussled last season, when host won and covered all four meetings. And Washington showing signs of improvement under new HC Ed Tapscott, with respectable covers in last two home efforts vs. Blazers & Lakers. But do we have faith in Wizards to keep series trend alive, especially minus Gilbert Arenas? Just in case Wizards laying points, note 0-4 spread mark as Verizon Center chalk. 07-IND +2 119-110 (OT-203), WASH -6 103-90 (201), IND -6' 93-85 (207), WASH -4 117-110 (206)

ATLANTA 99 - Charlotte 88—Home team has won last five meetings,
although Atlanta couldn’t quite cover 8-point spread when Charlotte visited
Philips Arena November 21. Hawks needed almost all of Joe Johnson’s 30
points to prevail on a night in which Josh Smith missed action due to injury.
Streaky Charlotte has followed recent 5-game cover streak with 3 straight
pointspread Ls thru Dec. 7. 8-ATL -8 88-83 (188); 07-ATL -5' 117-109 (188),
ATL -6 93-84 (185), CHA -1 100-98 (OT-193), CHA +1 108-93 (204)

MIAMI 98 - Milwaukee 97—One of the pointspread stories of the early
season has been Milwaukee’s prowess as a road dog, with Bucks covering 9 of
first 12 getting points away thru Dec. 6. Recent return of Michael Redd from
injury should further boost Milwaukee, also benefiting from improved bench
work courtesy Charlie Villanueva, Ramon Sessions, and Dan Gadzuric.
Meanwhile, undersized Miami (no one in regular rotation taller than 6-9)
nonetheless getting some great interior defense from C Joel Anthony, blocking
shots at an incredible clip in recent outings. 07-Mil +2' 103-98 (195), MIL -4 98- 92 (189), Mia +9' 112-106 (203), MIA +9 78-73 (199)

BOSTON 109 - Utah 96—Early-season showdown might lack extra
dimension if star Jazz F Carlos Boozer hasn’t returned from injury. That might
prove too much for Utah to overcome vs. red-hot Boston bunch on 11-game SU win streak thru Dec. 6. Keep in mind, however, that road team won both
meetings a year ago, including Jazz’ 110-92 win at Fleet Center. 07-Bos -5'
104-98 (193), Utah +7' 110-92 (204)

DALLAS 100 - Denver 94—After taking 2 of 3 from Dallas last season, Denver
picked up where it left off with 108-105 win at Pepsi Center Nov. 7. That was a triumphant night for Nuggets, as local product Chauncey Billups made first appearance since trade from Pistons, scoring 15. But new Dallas HC Rick Carlisle pushing the right buttons with his myriad lineup combinations, the most intriguing (and effective) of which is unique 3-G lineup featuring Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, and J.J. Barea. Mavs on 7-3 spread run thru Dec. 8. 08-DEN -1 108-105 (206); 07-Den +8 122-109 (215), DAL -11 90-85 (208), DEN -8' 118-105 (214)

PHOENIX 113 - New York 105—Lots of sidebar stories attached to this one,
none greater than New York HC Mike D’Antoni’s return to Phoenix after several
successful seasons with Suns. Unfortunately for D’Antoni, his new Knick
edition remains a work in progress, with unfortunate byproduct being Stephon
Marbury’s ongoing soap opera. Suns, however, not inspiring a lot of confidence lately themselves, with 5 straight spread losses thru Dec. 8 and defense not displaying the intensity new HC Terry Porter demands. 07-PHO -12' 113-102 (209), Pho -8' 115-104 (209)

SACRAMENTO 105 - Minnesota 96—Pick your poison! Teams have
already split a pair this season, with home team winning each, although
Minnesota failed to cover its 2-point opening-night win at Target Center. Both
struggling lately, but expect Sacto to have better chance of getting back on
track now that Kevin Martin & Francisco Garcia have returned to lineup. 08-MIN -5' 98-96 (202), SAC -3' 121-109 (199); 07-SAC -4' 100-93 (194), MIN -2 108-103 (191), Min +8 111-103 (202)
Orlando 117 - GOLDEN ST. 106—It’s hard to see Golden State emerging from
its recent tailspin that’s reached 9 losses in a row thru Dec. 7. At least until defense (torched for 120 ppg during losing skein) begins to tighten, a development that not even the return of G Monta Ellis (due back from suspension in a few weeks, but not a great defender anyway) figures to change. Note Orlando on 6-1 spread run on road thru Dec. 7. 07-Orl +3' 123-117 (OT-217), Gs +6 104-95 (230)

 

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THE GOLD SHEET

COLLEGE HOOPS
MONDAY, DECEMBER 15

SYRACUSE over Cleveland St. by 7-10—07-DNP
KENT ST. over Youngstown St. by 17 to 20—07-Ksu -9' 59-52
LA.-LAFAYETTE over La.-Monroe by 8 to 11—07-Ull +7' 68-67, ULL -7' 67-65
UC Riverside over LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT by 1 to 2—07-UCR -5 86-74 (OT)
SOUTHERN CAL over Pepperdine by 20 to 24—07-DNP

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE PLATINUM SHEET

12/15/2008 (331) CLEVELAND at (332) PHILADELPHIA

It is the remaining games on the regular season slate for the Eagles
that leads me to believe there will be a sense of urgency accompanying
their Monday night contest vs. Cleveland. Oh yeah, there’s also that
little fact that the Browns haven’t scored a touchdown in three weeks,
putting up just 21 points in that span. With Philadelphia having allowed
just 250.3 YPG in its L4, and regaining that swagger it had defensively
in the beginning of the season, the question begs to be asked…How is
Cleveland going to score? Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 22-4 SU &
17-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5-14 points. His teams typically take
care of business as large chalk. The StatFox Game Estimator pegs
Philly for 27 points. If such is the case, I can’t see Cleveland staying in
the game.
Play: Philadelphia -14

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Basketball

NBA Selections

Key Releases
3--Denver (+) over Dallas (12/15) 98-92

Best of the Rest
12/15--Milwaukee, Utah

NCAA Key Releases
5--Cleveland State (+) over Syracuse (12/15) 75-82

Best of the Rest
12/15--Youngstown State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LOGICAL APPROACH

Cleveland/Philadelphia UNDER 38

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

Monday, December 15th
PHILADELPHIA over Cleveland by 10

Now that was the Eagles we’ve all grown to admire. A convincing 20-14
victory at New York against the Giants as 7-point dogs puts them back in
the playoff picture. And their 13-2 ATS mark in games after taking on the
G-Men is impressive. What we don’t like, though, is the severe role change
in this contest. That and the fact that Cleveland coach Romeo ‘Lame Duck’
Crennel is 8-0 ATS in games off a loss of 17 or more points. He’s also 3-
0-1 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points in NFC frays. With Philly off the
NYG revenge win and having season-ending division revenge games up
next with Washington and Dallas, the points become the play here tonight.
Make it a Brownie Monday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence's Playbook

Monday, December 15

NBA
Charlotte over ATLANTA by 7
The Bobcats are back on the road – right where we like ‘em – in a neat
revenge situation here tonight. Charlotte lost on this fl oor, 88-83, earlier
this year as 8-point dogs and they now stand 11-6 SU and 12-5 ATS all-time
against the Hawks. Catching Atlanta off a revenger here Saturday night
against Cleveland and having a revenger on deck with Boston makes this
game the perfect revenge sandwich setup. Hawks’ pitiful 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS
mark in games after the Cavaliers clinches it. Go Bobbie!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Experts The Edge Newsletter

3* Philadelphia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allen Eastmen Ace/Ace

$$400.00 Cleveland (+14) over Philadelphia (9 p.m., Monday, Dec. 15)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PICK: under
Your pick will be graded at: 39 Belmont
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 10* NFL Total of the Month - 83% run!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 10* Under the total, Cleveland vs. Philadelphia, 8:30 PM EST

Cleveland’s offensive struggles are the main reason we are taking the UNDER on this game. With Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn both sidelined with injuries, the Browns will start Ken Dorsey at quarterback for the second straight week. Last week in a 9-28 loss to the Titans, Dorsey was a mere 22/43 for 150 yards and 1 interception. We don’t see his production improving this week vs. a stingy Eagles defense. Even before Dorsey was handed the starting job, the Browns were struggling to score points. They have totaled just 21 points in the past three weeks (just 7 points per game). Their total yardage numbers the last three games are 240, 192 and 178. The Cleveland offense has been horrendous and now they face off against the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. The Eagles stop unit has completely shutdown two of the best offenses in the NFL the last two weeks. They held Arizona to just 20 points and 260 total yards two weeks ago. Last Sunday they topped the Giants 20-14. New York put together only 211 yards of total offense against this red hot defense. Not only that, their 14 points were even a bit deceiving as they scored one TD on a 71-yard blocked field goal return and the other TD came with just 20 seconds remaining in the game.
Back to the Browns and their defense which has actually been playing fairly well. Before giving up 28 points last week to the Titans, the Browns held Houston to just 16 points and Indianapolis to just 10 in back to back weeks. Cleveland is actually 3rd in the entire NFL in defensive efficiency allowing just one point for every 17 yards gained by their opponent. They have allowed 17 points or less in six of their last ten games. This team is decent on defense and really bad on offense. That combination leads to low scoring games.
The Eagles were in shambles after their 29 point loss to the Ravens, but as we mentioned, they bounced back nicely with big wins against the Cardinals and the Giants the last two weeks. Philly has been riding on the back of Brian Westbrook for the last two weeks as he has totaled 240 yards rushing. Eagle coach Andy Reid has really decided to lean on the run down the stretch and that has amounted to 81 rushes in the last two games. Don’t expect him to change his philosophy which has led to two straight wins. With the Browns ability to stop the pass (Cleveland has allowed an average of 185 yards passing the past three weeks, allowing just 3 touchdowns and forcing 6 interceptions), we will get an over abundance of the Philly ground game here.
Philly doesn’t have the strongest receiving corps to begin with, and they will have to use Westbrook a lot to consistently move the ball in this game. Running the ball will speed the game up and keep the score low. Last week, the Titans ran the ball 43 times for 235 yards in their 28-9 win. Both teams are a combined 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games in December and we see that trend continuing on Monday night. Look for Philly to grab a lead and just sit on it using their running game. Go with the UNDER.
Best of Luck, Lee.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Bill

Eagles-Cleveland Browns Over 38 1/2 (5 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GamblersWorld

Tip of the Day - December 15, 2008

Today's TIP OF THE DAY:
Sport: NFL
Game: 8:30PM, Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles
Current Line: -14
Over/Under: 38

Reason: The Cleveland Browns and the Philadelphia Eagles will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at Lincoln Financial Field.
Oddsmakers currently have the Eagles listed as 14-point favorites versus the Browns, while the game's total is sitting at 38.
The Browns lost to Tennessee 28-9 as a 14-point underdog last week. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (37).
Ken Dorsey threw for 150 yards with an interception for Cleveland and Jamal Lewis was held to seven yards on seven carries.
The Eagles defeated the Giants 20-14 as a 7-point underdog last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).
Brian Westbrook rushed for 131 yards with a touchdown run and a TD reception for Philadelphia, while Donovan McNabb passed for 191 yards with a touchdown in the win.

Current streak:
Cleveland has lost 3 straight games.
Philadelphia has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Cleveland: 4-9 SU, 7-6 ATS
Philadelphia: 7-5-1 SU, 8-5 ATS

Cleveland most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 2-8
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 4-6

Philadelphia most recently:
When playing in December are 8-2
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing on outside the division are 7-2-1

A few trends to consider:
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Cleveland's last 19 games
Cleveland is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

 

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SIXTH SENSE

PHILADELPHIA –14 Cleveland 38.5
PHILADELPHIA 27 CLEVELAND 13

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORM HITZGES

Single Play
Philadelphia/Cleveland Under 39.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with SF, missed with GB and pushed with TB in the NFL Sunday.

Today it's the Nuggets. The deficit is 540 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

(509) UTAH JAZZ
(510) BOSTON CELTICS

Take "(510) BOSTON CELTICS"
The Jazz are tough as nails at home, but it's been a different story on the road for Utah. And tonight is as difficult as it gets as they have to start a trip with a stop at Boston, where the Celtics are simply playing phenomenal ball. I'll project yet another double digit win by Boston, so laying the points is the way I'd play.